Weekly Analysis 13th December

  • 11 Dec 2015 09:29
The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 13th of December.

To read the full pieces, sign up for a 30-day complimentary trial here or contact the team on GISEnquiries@rm.g4s.com

Russia:  Moscow bus station blast raises concerns over low-scale terrorism 

On 7 December, an improvised explosive device (IED) was thrown at a bus stop in the upmarket district of Chistye Prudy in Moscow, injuring five people. The blast occurred during the evening as people queued at the stop on Pokrovka Ulitsa. The impact of the blast was relatively light, with most of the injuries described as superficial. Officials later stated the explosive device was a grenade. There are a number of factors regarding the incident that remain unanswered. It is unknown who carried out the attack. It also remains unclear who or what was the intended target and motivation, and if the attack is an isolated incident, linked to organised crime or potentially something more sinister. To read more, sign up here

India: Chennai floods highlight poor disaster planning 

Major flooding in Chennai since 1 December has necessitated a major clean-up operation. The rains, the heaviest in 100 years, have killed at least 280 people across Tamil Nadu state. Army personnel and emergency workers are now delivering food, clean drinking water and medical supplies to flood-hit residents. However, there is widespread anger in the city amid complaints about the authorities handling of the planning and response to the flooding. To read more, sign up here

Venezuela: Opposition wins majority in National Assembly 

After 16 years of undivided socialist rule, the Democratic Unity opposition coalition won an overwhelming majority in the 6 December legislative elections, in which 74 percent of the electorate participated. With 112 out of 167 seats in the National Assembly, the opposition now controls the legislative branch of government, which represents a major defeat for the Maduro administration. Although there are widespread expectations that this is the first step towards radically changing the country’s political and economic direction, the opposition, which remains deeply fragmented, will still have to face the pro-socialist executive and judicial powers, leaving little room for effective initiatives to address the deteriorating economic and security environment in the country. To read more, sign up here

Ivory Coast: Strong economic growth to continue following president’s re-election 

On 25 October, President Alassane Ouattara won a landslide victory in the Ivory Coast’s first presidential elections since 2010 when former president Laurent Gbagbo refused to concede victory to Ouattara, sparking a four-month conflict leaving some 3,000 people dead. Ouattara won 83 percent of the vote in the October election, which was peaceful and has been deemed credible by international observers. His popularity is largely due to his role in overseeing the country’s major transformation from the 2010-2011 post-election crisis to political stability and a strong economy. With Ouattara elected to a second five-year term, the country is predicted to remain stable and the implementation of further business-friendly reforms will continue to ensure the Ivory Coast is an attractive destination for foreign investment. To read more, sign up here

Yemen: Ceasefire unlikely to ease multiple crises 


On 7 December, President Abdurabbu Mansour Hadi told the UN that he has requested the Saudi-led coalition to implement a ceasefire from 15 December. The seven-day ceasefire will coincide with UN-sponsored peace talks due to commence on 15 December outside Geneva, Switzerland. Although the Houthis and forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh have yet to agree to the potential ceasefire, a pause in the fighting is unlikely to stall a surge in insurgency-related activity, particularly in Aden. Additionally, the ceasefire will allow the deliverance of some humanitarian aid, but this is unlikely to be sufficient in dealing with the crisis in which some 80 percent of the population are in need of immediate aid. To read more, sign up here