Weekly Analysis 31st December

  • 05 Jan 2016 09:48
The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 31 December.
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Year in Review 2015


Middle East

Conflict and terrorism have been the key themes permeating the security environment in the Middle East region in 2015. Islamic State (IS) remains the key concern in the region and wider world and has expanded its operational presence in the Middle East in 2015. The ongoing Syrian and Yemen conflicts have also shaped regional developments as high casualties continue to feature in headlines and humanitarian crises teeter on the edge of full-scale disaster. To read more, sign up here

North Africa

The rise of Islamic State (IS) has impacted the economies and security environments of all North African nations in 2015. Egypt and Tunisia have suffered a number of high profile terrorist attacks at the hands of IS affiliates.  Libya faces a growing IS insurgency and the potential loss of control of the port city of Sirte. The Bamako hotel attack in November also highlights the perseverance of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), despite a concerted counter-insurgency campaign in Algeria. To read more, sign up here

South Asia

Militancy and political unrest presented significant challenges to security and economic stability across South Asia in 2015. A resolute effort by the Pakistani military to stamp out militancy, forced groups, primarily Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), to settle in the outskirts of Pakistan’s major cities. From these areas, groups have launched retaliatory attacks against government and military targets, which have intensified during the latter months of this year. Although militancy poses relatively fewer challenges to Pakistan’s economy relative its neighbours, its fiscal deficit prevented it from attaining significant growth at year’s end. Despite this, a diverse export portfolio, including textiles and minerals, has put it at an economic advantage, helping Pakistan to mitigate potential shocks going into 2016.  To read more, sign up here

Europe

Geopolitical, security and economic factors in Europe during 2015 have been driven by three main issues. These issues, namely mass immigration due to the conflict in Syria, Iraq and ongoing instability in Afghanistan and Sub-Saharan Africa, Islamist-related terrorism and ongoing government austerity, are expected to continue in to 2016. To read more, sign up here

Sub-Saharan Africa

2015 has been a year of major elections, political upheaval and persistent civil wars in sub-Saharan Africa. Presidential elections were held in Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Tanzania and Burkina Faso. However, incumbent presidents in Burundi, Rwanda, Congo-Brazzaville and DR Congo continued with efforts to remain in power beyond constitutional limits, sparking civil unrest and political violence, while a short-lived coup destabilised Burkina Faso in September. Civil wars and insecurity continued in Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia and the Central African Republic despite regional military interventions and peace efforts. Islamist terrorism remained a key threat in Nigeria, Mali, Kenya and Somalia. Major economies in the region including Nigeria, South Africa, DR Congo and Angola struggled amid weak commodity prices and falling demand from China. An Ebola outbreak in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea was brought under control, but humanitarian crises continued across the region due to persistent conflicts and severe drought amid the ongoing El Nino weather phenomenon. To read more, sign up here

Asia-Pacific

As in recent years, political, economic and military developments in China have framed the discourse in the Asia-Pacific region during 2015. This has translated into concern among its neighbours about Beijing’s intentions regarding ongoing territorial disputes. Elsewhere, the seemingly successful election in Myanmar has allayed fears that democratic reforms would be repealed, though increasingly authoritarian behaviour in Malaysia, Cambodia and Thailand has been indicative of the response to slowing economic growth. To read more, sign up here

Russia & CIS

As with the previous year, the security environment in 2015 for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been dominated by the return of the antagonism between President Vladimir Putin’s Russia and the NATO alliance. Although the year began with the second Minsk accord in February, which began to stabilise the conflict in eastern Ukraine, confrontation between the Kremlin and Western governments served as the most serious threat to regional security. Just as the Kremlin caught western policy-makers and analysts off guard with the invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014, the escalation of the Russian role in the Syrian conflict in September came as a surprise to many, not least as the Russian military demonstrated a newly-developed expeditionary capability of Russian aerospace and naval forces. This calculated unpredictability raises the question of where Russian military strategy will shift to next. To read more, sign up here

South America

South America’s political, security and economic environment in 2015 has been marked by three major events. Firstly, the temporary intensification and eventual de-escalation of conflict between rebel group FARC and the Colombian government. Secondly, the declining popularity of left-wing governments as a result of economic under performance and corruption accusations. Thirdly, two major bilateral border disputes, which have destabilised political relations between regional neighbours.  To read more, sign up here

North & Central America

2015 has witnessed some significant political changes in North and Central America as national elections saw changes in government in Guatemala, Canada and Argentina. US-Cuba rapprochement has also made progress in 2015, while organised crime and corruption in Central American state has characterised security environments. To read more, sign up here