Weekly Analysis 22nd April

  • 22 Apr 2016 09:48
The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 22 April.

To read the full pieces, sign up for a 30-day complimentary trial here or contact the team on GISEnquiries@rm.g4s.com

Brazil: Rousseff faces increasing prospect of impeachment

On 17 April, the Lower House of Congress approved the impeachment process against President Dilma Rousseff with 367 votes in favour and only 137 against. Despite intense campaigning by Rousseff and her Workers’ Party (PT), the impeachment process has moved on to be debated by the Senate in May. The controversial case has led to large-scale protests both in support of and against Rousseff in major cities, and the prospects for political stability are likely to worsen over the coming weeks as Rousseff faces growing pressure to step down. To read more, sign up here

Ecuador:  Earthquake set to compound economic downturn

On 16 April, a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck Ecuador’s Pacific coast, killing more than 500 people and injuring at least 2,500 others. The quake, the biggest to hit Ecuador since 1979, was followed by more than 300 aftershocks, including a 6.1 magnitude quake which occurred in the early hours of 20 April. Damage is widespread with poorly-constructed residences in isolated areas near the quake’s epicentre in Manabi province, notably Manta, Portoviejo and Pedernales, bearing the brunt of the destruction. The Spanish Red Cross reports that as many as 100,000 people require emergency assistance in these areas, with search and rescue personnel likely to encounter further casualties once contact with remote settlements is established. To read more, sign up here

Mali:  Violent protest in Kidal highlights deteriorating security situation in northern Mali

On 18 March a deadly protest broke out at an airport used by French and MINUMSA troops in the northern Malian town of Kidal. At least four people, believed to be local residents, were killed as the protest turned violent and seven remain hospitalised. The protest was sparked by the arbitrary detention of three suspected Islamist militants, who French forces suspect of complicity in the 13 April landmine attack on a military convoy. This violent protest is symptomatic of the continued deterioration in relations between international forces and communities in northern Mali. This incident will likely result in an increase in hostility towards humanitarian operations and is characteristic of the recent escalation in violence targeting counter-terrorism forces in Mali. To read more, sign up here

UK: Drone strike incident highlights aviation security risk

On 17 April, a British Airways flight en route from Geneva to London Heathrow was struck by a drone as it made its final approach. The aircraft was at 1,700ft when the drone struck the front of the cockpit. Despite the impact, the aircraft landed safely, with no injuries to any of the 137 passengers or crew and no damage to the plane. However, the incident has again raised the safety and security risks to the aviation sector from civilian drones. To read more, sign up here
 
Egypt: Island deal with Saudi Arabia sparks rare anti-Sisi protests

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s executive decision to cede sovereignty of two strategic islands in the Red Sea, Tiran and Sanafir, to Saudi Arabia triggered the first large protests since he came to power in 2014. Police used tear gas and detained dozens of people during the demonstrations on 15 April. Although Sisi claims he has given nothing away, the decision to hand the islands to Saudi Arabia came during a visit by King Salman bin Abdulaziz, who announced some USD 45.65 billion of investment in Egypt in the form of loans, bank deposits and infrastructure development, prompting activists to accuse Sisi of selling Egyptian territory. To read more, sign up here

Vietnam: El Nino drought hits rice and fishing exports 

The worst drought in 90 years is currently affecting the Mekong Delta region, devastating rice crops and reducing exports of shrimp, rice and coffee. Downstream Vietnam is the worst affected. Low river levels there are allowing seawater to seep upstream, leading to unprecedented salt intrusion that will have major long-term impacts on the productivity of the soils. The result will be to hit both the Vietnamese economy and regional food security, as a substantial proportion of the populations of Indonesia and the Philippines depend on Vietnamese rice exports for sustenance. To read more, sign up here