Weekly Analysis June 5th

  • 03 Jun 2016 11:36
The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 5th of June.
China

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Increased threat of terrorist attacks during Ramadan

As the holy fasting month of Ramadan is set to commence on 5 June, security forces will be on high alert amid the rising threat of terrorist attacks across the globe, particularly in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Indeed, the start of Ramadan coincides with the anniversary of the announcement of an Islamic “caliphate” by Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Mosul on 29 June 2014, the first day of Ramadan that year. IS has already released propaganda calling on its sympathisers to launch attacks wherever they are in Europe. With several high-profile sporting events in France, as well as an influx of holiday-goers to global destinations, the threat of attack is assessed as high during Ramadan. To read more, sign up here

China: US-China tensions set to intensify ahead of impending South China Sea tribunal ruling

In a matter of weeks, a United Nations tribunal is scheduled to deliver a ruling on Chinese sovereignty over territory in the South China Sea. Brought unilaterally to The Hague by the Philippines in 2013, the tribunal will determine the legality of China’s claim to numerous islands inside the so-called “nine-dash line”, several of which are also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei. Ahead of the tribunal’s decision, regional tensions are set to intensify with China pledging to reject the outcome, which is anticipated to rule in favour of the Philippines. The intervening period ahead of the ruling will likely see Beijing escalate land reclamation and construction programmes in the area, predominantly in and around the Scarborough Shoal, off the coast of Manila. To read more, sign up here

France: Opposition over labour reforms expected to continue as strikes enter June

On 26 May, workers at six of France’s eight refineries voted to go on strike, blockading fuel depots and preventing supplies from reaching petrol stations. Workers at the oil ports of Marseille, Cherbourg, Le Havre and St Malo also took part in the strike, aggravating the situation. With hundreds of petrol stations running out of fuel, motorists in parts of the country experienced extensive fuel rationing and long queues. The fuel shortages come as nationwide protests against the controversial new labour law reforms have intensified. After more than two months of protesting, trade unions increased the pressure on the government by striking within other sectors including transport and aviation. To read more, sign up here

Iraq: Militia role in Fallujah to determine future of sectarianism

Human rights groups have expressed concerns over the safety of Sunni Muslims who are currently living under the control of Islamic State (IS), but who may also face persecution from certain extremist Shi’a militias if Fallujah is captured by government forces. Iraq’s security forces are advancing gradually into Fallujah a week after the offensive to liberate the city began on 23 May. However, restoring long-term government control over Fallujah will require more than defeating IS by military means. As the campaign to retake the city slows into a siege, blocked by the fierce resistance of IS fighters and the use of civilians as human shields, there will be fears that the activities of Shi’a militants around Fallujah will exacerbate sectarian tensions. To read more, sign up here

Kenya: Political tensions rise over protests and repression 


The past month has seen a sharp rise in political tensions in Kenya. Although a dialogue process between the government and opposition leaders may yet stabilise the immediate-term situation, repeated outbursts of civil unrest during protests against the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) have raised doubts that the upcoming presidential election in 2017 will be as peaceful as the 2013 vote. In the run-up to the next year’s poll, intrigue and manoeuvring can be expected at all layers of political leadership in Kenya as the CORD opposition alliance, most likely under the leadership of former president Raila Odinga, prepares to challenge the ruling Jubilee coalition of President Uhuru Kenyatta. With tensions high, further instances of unrest and political violence appear to be a given. To read more, sign up here 

Chile: New wave of violent protests hits Chile


In the past month, students, labour unions and fishermen groups have demonstrated against President Michelle Bachelet’s administration, motivated by different sources of discontent. Although Bachelet won a second term in 2014 pledging to reform the constitution and rule with a left-wing agenda, she has already reached half of her term without being able to implement major changes. As Bachelet struggles to retain her previously high approval ratings, her government is expected to face increasing protests to demand tangible reforms in the short term. To read more, sign up here