Weekly Analysis 12th June

  • 10 Jun 2016 10:09
The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 12th of June.
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The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 12 June. 

To read the full pieces, sign up for a 30-day complimentary trial here or contact the team on GISEnquiries@g4s.com

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France: Arrest of French citizen in Ukraine highlights diversity of terrorism threat

Ukrainian authorities have revealed that a French national was arrested on the Ukrainian border with Poland on 21 May on suspicion of planning mass attacks in France. Gregoire Moutaux was apprehended by security services near the Ukraine-Poland border checkpoint at Yagodyn. Weapons including five Kalashnikov assault rifles, two anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades, 5,000 bullets, 100 detonators and 125kg of TNT explosives were found within the vehicle. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has revealed that Moutaux had been monitored since December 2015 after making contact with Ukrainian armed forces in the region, and making several unusual remarks on how to buy arms and explosives. Although arrested in May, the SBU revealed that it had not intended to announce the arrest until after the conclusion of the 2016 Euro football championships, but information was leaked to the media. To read more, sign up here

Papua New Guinea:  Police shooting sets off rioting

A student protest march descended into violence on 8 June in the capital, Port Moresby, which in turn set off riots across the country that have demonstrated the fragility of the city’s security environment. Police used tear gas and live ammunition to disperse a crowd of student protests marching on parliament from the Waigani campus of University of Papua New Guinea, with initial reports suggesting that four demonstrators were killed. Officials later sought to edit the casualty toll downwards, saying that the initial reports of four deaths were unfounded, although up to 36 have been injured. Nevertheless, the scale of the recent violence suggests the country is moving towards a new phase of instability. To read more, sign up here

Niger:  Bosso attack highlights threat to civilians and humanitarians in Diffa region

Boko Haram militants overran multiple military posts and took control of the town of Bosso in southern Niger on 3 June, killing more than 30 Nigerien soldiers along with at least two of their Nigerian counterparts. The current status of Bosso is unclear, as military commanders claimed to have retaken the town but its mayor denying that was the case. Although the insurgent group periodically conducts cross-border raids into Niger, this assault is one of its deadliest attacks in 2016, coming at the same time as the Nigerian military’s claims to have made major advances against it. Although a new defence agreement between regional and international powers aims to curb the group’s impact on the region’s civilian population, it is clear progress in the war in the Lake Chad basin will remain slow and haphazard. To read more, sign up here

Peru: Kuczynski victory anticipated in presidential election

Peru’s presidential election results have yet to be announced, with vote counting for the run-off poll continuing to see an exceptionally narrow margin divide the two candidates. However, it appears increasingly likely that the victory of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will be announced over 11-12 June, defeating his rival Keiko Fujmori by less than 0.3 percent of the vote. Police will remain on high alert until the final result is announced. With both candidates running with very similar economic platforms, the determining topic of the election has been the candidates’ different approaches towards security. The closeness of the result highlight the deep divisions within the Peruvian electorate and foreshadows the challenges that Kuczynski will face if he steps into office in July to succeed President Ollanta Humala. To read more, sign up here

India: Mathura clashes underscore growing potential for unrest under Modi 

On June 2, at least 29 people were killed, including a senior police commander, and 40 others wounded after police attempted to evict squatters belonging to Azad Bharat Vidhik Vaicharik Kranti Satyagrahi (Members of the Free India Legal Ideas Revolutionary Protesters), a Hindu Netaji sect, in Jawahar Bagh park in Mathura, Uttar Pradesh. Government officials report that members of the group opened fire on police from treetops shortly after officers entered the park, acting on an order from the Allahabad high court. Many of the casualties were killed after LPG gas cylinders exploded. The dead included the group’s most recent leader, Ram Vriksh Yadav. Police arrested more than 300 people during the eviction. To read more, sign up here 

Yemen: Government returns despite persistent insecurity  

Just two days after Aden International Airport (ADE) was reopened on 4 June, some 20 gunmen attacked the facility, demanding the release of an Islamic State (IS) suspect arrested on 28 May. The 6 June attack on ADE left one civilian dead after airport guards repelled the attack. The juxtaposition of the two events highlights the continued insecurity in Aden, the designated capital since 2015, despite progress in attempts to reopen the city after months of deadly conflict. To read more, sign up here