Weekly Analysis 19th June

  • 17 Jun 2016 10:11
The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 17 June.
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US: Orlando mass shooting highlights lone wolf threat

On 12 June, an armed man identified as Omar Mateen entered a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida, shooting indiscriminately, killing 50 people and injuring at least 53 others. Right before the attack, Mateen, a 29-year-old US citizen of Afghan heritage, pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS), with the terrorist group claiming responsibility for the attack despite the lack of identified links between Mateen and IS. This is the deadliest mass shooting in US history and highlights two of the most controversial topics of the current electoral campaign: gun control and the threat from Islamist-related terrorism, including ‘lone wolf’ attacks. To read more, sign up here

France:  Football-related violence mars opening of Euro 2016

The first week of the Euro 2016 football tournament has been marred by several incidents of violent unrest involving rival football fans. The worst of these incidents have involved English and Russian fans in Marseille, where the England-Russia game took place at the Stade Vélodrome on 10 June. Major fan violence occurred on three consecutive nights between 9 and 11 June as police were forced to intervene on multiple occasions. Although much of the unrest came as a result of alcohol-related aggression, primarily from England fans, French prosecutors have indicated that the worst of the violence was carried out by Russian hooligans, who stormed the English supporters’ end after the final whistle, prompting a dangerous stampede in the stadium. Russian fans also assaulted English supporters in running mob battles through the city’s streets. At least 35 people were injured in the ensuing clashes, most of them English, and at least four remain in a serious condition. To read more, sign up here

Philippines:  Abu Sayyaf beheadings illustrate threat to foreign nationals in south

On 13 June, Abu Sayyaf, a militant group that has pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS), announced it had beheaded a second Canadian hostage after a ransom deadline passed. Robert Hall had been held captive by the group for nine months and his execution comes two months after another Canadian hostage, John Ridsel, was killed in a similar fashion. The beheadings highlight the continued threat posed by Abu Sayyaf, as well as its reliance on ransom payments and criminal groups to remain operational. To read more, sign up here

Israel and the Palestinian Territories: Tel Aviv market shooting triggers further restrictions on Palestinians in the West Bank

The security situation across Israel and the Palestinian Territories has intensified following the 8 June shooting in Tel Aviv’s Sarona market which killed five people and injured more than 16. In the wake of the attack, the Israeli government has been heavily criticised for its response, which the UN says amounts to “collective punishment”. Military operations and travel restrictions have been implemented in Yatta and across the West Bank, running the risk of stoking further unrest. The attack is the most deadly single incident in the eight month wave of violence, however threats from Hamas suggest more acts of violence could be scheduled over the Ramadan period. To read more, sign up here

Mozambique: Security state frays under fiscal and rebel pressures

As a ruthless counter-insurgency campaign against the rebels from the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo) continues in central regions, the government is entering a new phase of crisis as a result of fiscal shortfalls. In the cities, the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) party appears to be cracking down on its critics. The root of the current phase of instability is a series of secret loans totalling some USD 2 billion, often taken out for state security and intelligence agencies, which have set off a debt crisis as debt-to-GDP levels approach 100 percent. Given the scale of the fiscal challenge, the country’s political outlook is negative, not least as 1.5 million of its citizens need international assistance under the strains of an El Nino-induced drought. To read more, sign up here

Austria: Freedom Party election challenge reflects wider social tension

On 8 June, the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) launched a legal challenge to the presidential election run-off result held on 22 May. The run-off between FPO candidate Norbert Hofer and Green Party candidate Alexander Van der Bellen was exceptionally close, with the margin of defeat for Hofer confirmed at 0.6 percent or 30,863 votes. The FPO, initially backing the result, has now launched the legal challenge after reports of irregularities at 94 voting districts. The FPO has submitted a 150-page paper over the alleged irregularities to the constitutional court, with a decision having to be made by 8 July, the date that Van der Bellen is sworn in as president. To read more, sign up here