Weekly Analysis 15th July

  • 15 Jul 2016 14:00
The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 15 July.
Flags

To read the full pieces, sign up for a 30-day complimentary trial here or contact the team on GISEnquiries@g4s.com

_________________________________________________________________________

US: Dallas shooting and police violence accentuate racial tensions

On 7 July, Micah Johnson, a black 25-year-old former army reservist, killed five white police officers and injured seven others and two civilians, in a gun attack during a protest against police violence in Dallas, Texas. Organised by the Black Lives Matter activist group, the protest march came in response to the killing of two black men by police in the previous few days. While the attack represents the deadliest incident against police agents since the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, it also highlights the increasing racial tensions between the police and the black population in the country, while intensifying the debate on gun control and police tactics. To read more, sign up here

China: Beijing mulls next steps following South China Sea ruling

On 12 July, the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled against China’s claims of sovereignty over large swathes of the South China Sea. Beijing has termed the ruling “ill-founded", with the court finding no evidence of historical Chinese control over South China Sea waters. The dispute was brought to the court by the Philippines in 2013, with Beijing continuing to deny the tribunal’s authority. Although the ruling is binding on both China and the Philippines, the body is unable to enforce the ruling, which is unlikely to have any effect on Beijing’s efforts in land reclamation and its construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. To read more, sign up here

Zimbabwe:  Protests to endure as economic decline continues

On 6 July, businesses and shops closed across the country as part of a nationwide “stay away” strike called by #ThisFlag social movement leader Pastor Evan Mawarire and other civil society organisations. The strike was called in response to declining economic conditions and came during a nationwide no-show by public sector workers who have yet to receive their June salaries. Although turnout to the second stay away was muted on 13 July, the population remains angry over the declining economy, particularly the government's failure to pay civil servants' salaries, a currency shortage and import restrictions. Further adverse changes to these factors could spark further large-scale protests. To read more, sign up here

Libya: Proposed NOC oil merger unlikely to assist in unifying rival governments

A recent proposal to merge Libya’s two competing National Oil Companies (NOCs) appears to be a positive step towards the unification of the divided country, however the move could fail on a number of pivotal issues. The eastern based House of Representatives (HoR) will only ratify the deal once certain controversial conditions are met. Additionally, Libya’s oil fields are far from secure, with major production regions controlled by a mix of self-titled Libyan National Army (LNA), Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG), Islamic State (IS) forces and a plethora of militia groups. Therefore the deal may be nothing more than a symbolic act. Libya’s oil output has fallen to fifth of its 2011 level, turning Libya into the second smallest producer in Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Western powers are keen to bolster the Libyan oil industry, however, political union will be required to move back towards the pre-Gaddafi output levels of 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). To read more, sign up here

South Sudan: Uneasy peace holds in Juba as battle subsides

As of 14 July, the ceasefire is holding in Juba after the heaviest fighting in the capital since the outbreak of the civil war began in December 2013.Nevertheless, tensions remain very high between the government’s SPLA military and the rebel SPLA-In Opposition (SPLA-IO). Fighting may yet return to Juba with little warning and foreign personnel are wisely withdrawing. Foreign governments are sending troops to secure assets and people, and to assist in evacuating their nationals, with rich countries and aid agencies chartering flights out of Juba Airport (JUB) and neighbouring countries assisting the movement of people towards the land crossings with Uganda and Kenya. Kampala has sent a military convoy to open up a secure corridor to protect its citizens and others from bandits along the road to the Nimule crossing. To read more, sign up here

Germany: First raids targeting online hate speech underscores wider issue


On 13 July, police launched the country’s first ever raids across the country to target the spreading of online hate speech. Officers conducted raids on multiple properties in 14 of Germany’s 16 states. The raids are part of a wider investigation into the increase in online hate crime. The raids are also reflective of broader concerns of the general increase in hate crime in Germany, a country that has taken strong steps to tackle neo-Nazism and anti-Semitism due in part to its national history. To read more, sign up here

Cambodia: Political activist’s murder indicative of continued crackdown ahead of elections

n 11 July, thousands of people attended the funeral of leading government critic Kem Ley. Kem Ley was killed by a gunman at a teahouse in Phnom Penh on 10 July over a USD 3,000 debt. Despite this official report on the murder, suspicion abounds that Kem Ley was targeted by the political elite following his outspoken criticism of the government. Although politically-inspired killings have declined significantly since the mid-1990s-mid-2000s, pressure on the government, particularly Prime Minister Hun Sen, is growing as journalists, activists and critics reveal the fortunes amassed by the political elite. Ley’s death may trigger increased civil society activity around corruption, potentially leading to wider civil unrest as a more educated and connected population seeks a greater voice in how the country is governed. To read more, sign up here