Weekly Analysis 22nd July

  • 22 Jul 2016 10:26
The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 22 July.
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Turkey: Failed military coup to lead to executive presidency

In the wake of a failed coup attempt by factions within the Turkish military on 15 July, the security situation across Turkey has stabilised as the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government asserts its power over state institutions. In response to the attempted overthrow of the elected government by a substantial faction within the army, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ordered the arrest or suspension of some 60,000 alleged plotters, primarily members of the armed forces, judiciary, security services, civil servants and teachers. Foreign governments have voiced their concern about the implications for Turkish democracy and human rights as the purge gathers pace, not least with Erdogan pledging to re-introduce the death penalty, which would bar the path to EU membership. Even if President Erdogan eventually chooses to rein back the witch hunt, it will only be after he has established the long-sought executive presidency, institutionalising the political system as an electoral dictatorship. To read more, sign up here

France: Nice attack highlights complexity of counter-terrorism efforts


On 14 July, a Tunisian man drove a truck into a crowd of people on Promenade des Anglais in Nice as they celebrated Bastille Day, driving 2km up the road before being shot dead by police. The terrorist attack left at least 84 people dead and dozens more injured. The attacker had several guns and other weapons in the truck, indicating that he planned a further stage to the attack, possibly with accomplices. Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack on 16 July, but French authorities have yet to find evidence of significant links between the attacker, Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, and the terrorist organisation. The attack highlights the threat posed by self-radicalised individuals and the impossibility of fully preventing terrorist attacks occurring as terrorists improvise and continue to evade traditional security measures. To read more, sign up here

Venezuela:  Border crossings and militarisation of food supply evidence of deteriorating environment 

On 16 July, the Maduro administration temporarily re-opened the border connecting Tachira, in Venezuela, and Cucuta, in Colombia, to allow Venezuelans to cross over to shop for food staples and medicines as severe shortages in the country continue. Earlier that week, on 12 July, President Nicolas Maduro ordered the military to take control of five ports and manage the production and distribution of goods. The appointment of the minister of defence, General Vladimir Padrino Lopez, as head of the “Great Mission of Sovereign Supplying”, has raised severe concerns over the growing power of the military over civilian matters and Maduro’s offensive against the opposition. To read more, sign up here

India: Kashmir unrest reflective of simmering discontent


Unrest in Indian-administered Kashmir since 8 July has killed 45 people, including 43 civilians and two local policemen, following the killing of Hizb-u-Mujahideenl commander Burhan Wani by security forces. Authorities have imposed a curfew as isolated protests continue in the wake of an intense four-day spate of violence in the immediate aftermath of Wani’s death. The unrest and subsequent crackdown marks the worst siege in Kashmir valley since two popular uprisings in 2008 and 2010, in which 200 people, mostly civilian protesters, died in clashes with the security forces. To read more, sign up here

Zambia: Tensions spike in run-up to August elections

There are growing political tensions in Zambia, which will hold general elections on 11 August to elect the president and national assembly. Soon after the electoral commission lifted a ban on political campaigns that was imposed after police shot and killed an opposition supporter in Lusaka on 8 July, police raided the home of a leading opposition politician. Authorities have closed the country’s leading independent newspaper after it reported on alleged plans to fix the upcoming election in favour of the ruling Patriotic Front (PF). The alleged plans for electoral manipulation suggest that the election poll may be disputed and lack legitimacy, leading to a political crisis that will increase the risk of civil unrest over the coming weeks. To read more, sign up here