Weekly Analysis 9th September

  • 09 Sep 2016 15:35
The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 9 September.
Sudan

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Brazil: Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment prompts turmoil

On 31 August, the Brazilian Senate voted 61-20 to impeach former president Dilma Rousseff. Although the outcome of the vote had been largely expected since Congress decided to suspend Rousseff in May, the decision remains highly controversial and has evidenced the significant political divisions in the country. Although President Michel Temer, who was sworn in as president only hours after the Senate vote, has vowed to strengthen the economy, widespread discontent among Rousseff’s supporters raises the risk of civil unrest, challenging Temer’s administration and the security and political operating environment. To read more, sign up here

Philippines: Obama-Duterte spat sign of uncertain security future

A recent diplomatic spat between the leaders of the United States and the Philippines has come at a crossroads for Manila. After using the salty language he is renowned for at home in reference to US criticism of his human rights record, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte found himself apologising after US President Barack Obama cancelled their scheduled meeting at the ASEAN forum. It was a less than promising entry to diplomacy for President Duterte, who was elected on the back of the Philippine electorate’s preference for his blunt approach to security over the dry technocracy of the Manila elites that preceded him in office. Given the president’s limited interest in consistent and predictable policies, the Philippine’s recent gains in economic stability will be at risk in the long-term at a time that the country faces rising organised crime and renewed assertiveness from China over disputed territorial claims. To read more, sign up here

Gabon: Civil unrest likely to continue over disputed presidential election results

Violence and widespread civil unrest has broken out across Libreville and other parts of Gabon after President Ali Bongo won a second term in office in a disputed election. On 31 August, President Bongo won 49.8 percent of the vote to opposition leader Jean Ping's 48.2 percent, prompting a violent protest against the National Assembly by opposition activists and subsequently a deadly raid on the opposition party headquarters by the presidential guard on 2 September. Democratic rights and humanitarian groups have expressed concern that President Bongo may limit civil liberties in order to extend his family’s 50-year rule, evidenced by thousands of arrests over the course of three days, violent suppression of street activism and the suspension of the internet. To read more, sign up here

Saudi Arabia: Hajj becomes latest political tool in struggle for regional dominance

As hundreds of thousands of pilgrims arrive in Mecca to perform Hajj, the annual pilgrimage has become another political struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has accused the Saudi authorities of killing Iranian pilgrims following a stampede during last year’s Hajj and calling for new management of the event. Iran’s accusations come as Iranian pilgrims will be unable to attend Hajj this year after bilateral talks failed to reach an agreement on safety and logistics. Despite Khamenei’s focus on Hajj, the bilateral animosity is indicative of growing tensions between the two regional powers as they increasingly clash in arenas across the Middle East. To read more, sign up here

Bangladesh: Execution of prominent Islamist leader increases potential for unrest

On 3 September, Bangladesh executed Mir Quasem Ali, a senior Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) party official and financier. Ali is the latest in a string of prominent Islamist leaders to receive the death penalty after being convicted for crimes against humanity committed during the country’s war of independence in 1971. Prosecutors in the country’s ongoing war crime tribunal found Ali guilty of 10 charges, including two counts of murder, in 2014, alleging that he was a senior commander of the pro-Pakistan al-Badr paramilitary group which is reported to have been involved in the systematic killing of pro-liberation intellectuals during the war. To read more, sign up here

Sweden: Gothenburg bomb blasts illustrates ongoing organised crime challenges

On 5 September, a suspected improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in the Biskopsgarden district of Gothenburg. The blast, which occurred in an apartment building, caused moderate damage but no injuries. The incident comes two weeks after Yuusuf Warsame, an eight-year-old boy from the UK, was killed in a grenade blast in the same district on 22 August, in an apparent revenge attack centred on the city’s organised criminal fraternity. Both incidents reflect the ongoing issues of organised crime rivalries in the city and the challenges the authorities face. To read more, sign up here