Weekly Analysis 3rd December

  • 07 Dec 2015 09:13

The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations.

The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 27 November. 

To read the full pieces, sign up for a 30-day complimentary trial here or contact the team on GISEnquiries@rm.g4s.com

Turkey:  Implications of downed Russian jet 

On 24 November, the Turkish Air Force downed a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 warplane near the Turkish border in Syria after it violated Turkish airspace, triggering the most serious confrontation to date between the regional powers involved in the Syrian conflict. Moscow and Ankara have been trading accusations over the incident, with Russia claims it did not cross into Turkish airspace. One of the Russian pilots has been rescued, but the second was reportedly shot dead by Turkmen insurgents as he parachuted from the jet, amid reports that Syrian militants also downed a Russian rescue operation helicopter, killing a Russian marine. To read more, sign up here

Tunisia: Bus attack highlights security apparatus flaws 

On 24 November, a suicide bomber targeted a bus carrying presidential guards in the capital, Tunis, killing 13 people. Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility for the attack in a posting on social media, adding to two previous attacks it has claimed this year. The authorities have imposed a state of emergency across the country and enacted a curfew in response, while also closing Tunisia’s borders with Libya for 15 days. The incident raises concerns about the capability of the security services to counter future threats. To read more, sign up here

Greece: Athens anarchist attack underlines ongoing risk of civil unrest ahead of December anniversary 

On 24 November, a bomb exploded during the early hours near Syntagma Square’s main Parliament building, damaging the Cypriot Embassy and four other nearby properties. No injuries have been reported. The target of the bombing was thought to be the Federation of Greek Enterprises, but the building suffered relatively little damage. The incident occurred some 30 minutes after an anonymous telephone caller issued a warning to two Athens media agencies, prompting police to carry out an evacuation and security operation. To read more, sign up here

China: Domestic terrorism threat forces assessment of foreign policy options 

On 18 November, Islamic State (IS) released the latest edition of its online publication, ‘Dabiq’, featuring the news that Fan Jinghui, a Chinese national and IS hostage, had been executed. In the wake of this news, President Xi Jinping declared that China would “enhance its counter terrorism cooperation with the international community”. Despite this declaration, the likelihood of China taking up an active overseas counter-terrorism role within the US-led coalition currently embarking   on military operations against IS in Syria and Iraq remains low. To read more, sign up here

Rwanda: Parliament approves constitutional amendment to allow President Paul Kagame to stay in power 

On 17 November, Rwanda’s upper house of parliament unanimously approved a constitutional amendment which would allow President Paul Kagame to seek a third term in 2017. Although the change will now be subject to approval through a referendum, it is not expected to face much opposition. If the change is approved, Kagame could run potentially remain in power until 2034. Although Kagame has not confirmed that he would run again for president, he has conceded that he would be open to persuasion; and it is highly likely that in the event of a successful referendum, Kagame will indeed run again as the leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). To read more, sign up here

UK: Defence review re-orients security spending towards newer threats 

The UK government has issued its quadrennial Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) this week, confirming a re-orientation of British public security spending towards a host of new threats. The previous review took place in 2010, effectively as a cost-cutting exercise to boost public finances during a period of international security now seen as relatively benign, prior to the rise of Islamic State (IS) and the breakdown of relations with Russia over Ukraine. Despite the review’s aim to re-orient defence spending towards newer threats, it is unclear whether the apparatus of government will have the agility to respond to the theme that ties together the newer threats, namely the “hybrid warfare” practised by both Russia and IS, combining deception, coercion, corruption, subversion, ideology and provocation to de-stabilise existing power structures. To read more, sign up here

Argentina: Macri’s victory and political change in Argentina  

After 12 years of uninterrupted Kirchner rule, the triumph of opposition candidate Mauricio Macri in the 22 November runoff presidential election raises expectations of significant political and economic change in Argentina. The results were largely an expression of discontent with the populist and interventionist policies introduced by late president Nestor Kirchner and strengthened by his wife and current President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. However, Macri’s victory by a very narrow margin of only 2.8 percent forecasts a series of difficulties that the new government will face. To read more, sign up here

Mali:  Bamako attack highlights vulnerability of regional hotels   

At least 27 people were killed on 20 November when two armed militants entered the Radisson Blu hotel in central Bamako, taking 140 people and 30 hotel staff hostage. Malian Special Forces, alongside French and US Special Forces, ended the day-long siege with a floor-to-floor sweep of the building. The attack was the second in four months to target a hotel frequented by foreign personnel in Mali. The latest incident highlights the vulnerability of foreign travellers in hotels, even with security provision, in areas on the periphery of terrorist territories. To read more, sign up here