Weekly Analysis 15th April

  • 15 Apr 2016 11:04

The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 15 April.


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France: Nuit Debout movement attracts broader support ahead of further anticipated protests

Over the past weeks, hundreds of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets across France to demonstrate against the government’s proposed labour reforms. Although the government’s labour bill is aimed at reducing unemployment rates by creating more flexible guidelines for employers, the bill would also put current workers at risk of being dismissed by changing the current tough regulations that protect staff. To read more, sign up here

Libya:  Challenges facing the UN-backed Unity government in Libya 

On 30 March, Prime Minister-designate of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) Fayez al-Sarraj entered Tripoli despite resistance from the Islamist-leaning General National Congress (GNC). The GNA unity government has since operated from Tripoli’s main naval base, attempting to mitigate GNC Prime Minister Khalifa al-Ghwell’s diplomatic U-turns. Libya’s future stability largely depends on the smooth transition of executive power from Ghwell to Sarraj, the allegiance of militia groups and the defeat of an Islamic State (IS) insurgency. The multifaceted nature of the threat in Libya, confirms the need for swift political reconciliation and action. To read more, sign up  here

Angola/DR Congo:  Yellow fever outbreak moves from Luanda to DR Congo 

An outbreak of yellow fever that began in December 2015 in Viana municipality of Luanda province, Angola, has entered the DR Congo. The municipalities of Nsona-Pangu, Kimpese and Kitona in Kongo Central province, which border Angola, have all reported cases and at least 21 people have died in the DR Congo of the mosquito-borne disease to date. The outbreak of the familiar disease, which is endemic across the Africa’s tropical zone, will require travellers to pay more attention to ensuring that their vaccinations are up to date, while organisations should take steps to ensure their workforce are educated and supported in reducing their exposure. To read more, sign up here

Bangladesh: Latest blogger killing underscores expanding extremist threat 

The alleged Bangladeshi affiliate of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Ansar al-Islam, has claimed responsibility for the killing of a law student and secular blogger in the Sutrapur area of Dhaka on 6 April. A group of three armed men attacked 26-year-old Nazimuddin Samad using machetes before shooting him dead with a handgun. Samad’s name had appeared on a "hit-list" of secular writers and activists, published anonymously in August 2015, alongside a number of other individuals who were also killed in similar circumstances during 2015. As with the previous killings, this incident underscores the growing ability of militant groups to act with impunity on Bangladeshi soil, with the Awami League’s (AL) authoritarian efforts to quash dissent among opposition activists permitting religious extremists to operate uninhibited. To read more, sign up here
Peru: Fujimori wins first-round election but faces strong contender in runoff

As it had been expected, right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori of the Popular Force party has won the 10 April presidential election with 39.7 percent of the vote. However, she has failed to avoid a runoff scheduled on 5 June, when she will face centre-right candidate and former economy minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who obtained 21 percent of the vote. The controversial candidacy of the daughter of jailed former president Alberto Fujimori has highlighted the significant divisions within the Peruvian electorate and the potential for civil unrest will remain high ahead of the runoff election. To read more, sign up here

Jordan: Kingdom continues to rent-seek as economy struggles under refugee burden

Despite regional turmoil, Jordan continues to see economic growth as King Abdullah II remains a key ally against Islamic State (IS) and other extremism in the Middle East. On 7 April, a US senator called for an emergency fund of “multiple billions” of dollars to help Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon to help them deal with the fallout of the Syria-Iraq crisis, particularly hosting refugees. The US comments follow Jordanian Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour saying that the country is prepared to allow Syrian refugees to work if the international community agrees to extend billions of dollars’ worth of aid for its economy. Jordan continues to rent-seek and dangle the threat of destabilisation in a bid to prop up its flailing economy. To read more, sign up here