Weekly Analysis - 8 July

  • 08 Jul 2016 10:13

The G4S Risk Analysis team produces weekly risk analysis pieces on current events pertinent to security and business operations. Please see below for excerpts of our weekly analysis for the week ending 8 July.


To read the full pieces, sign up for a 30-day complimentary trial here or contact the team on GISEnquiries@g4s.com


Iraq: Karrada bombings emphasise pervasive IS threat

In the deadliest attack in Baghdad since the start of 2016, Islamic State (IS) detonated two car bombs in Karrada district of the city on 3 July, killing 250 people and injuring at least 150 others. The attack highlights the ability of IS to carry out major attacks in the Iraqi capital, despite facing territorial setbacks across the country. In response to the bombings, large crowds gathered in Karrada to protest against the continued failings of the security services, and the inability of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s government to guarantee security in the capital. To read more, sign up here

Bangladesh: Dhaka hostage crisis highlights burgeoning militant influence

On 1 July, Islamist militants killed 20 people at the Holey Artisan Bakery restaurant in the upscale Gulshan neighbourhood in central Dhaka. A group of six armed individuals entered the restaurant at approximately 2120hrs, opening fire at customers. Police attempted to enter the restaurant to confront the gunmen shortly after the incident began, but were forced to retreat amid heavy resistance from the attackers. Following a 12-hour standoff, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) commandos stormed the restaurant, killing six attackers and arresting one other. Security personnel seized a number of improvised explosive devices and AK-22 assault rifles from the scene. To read more, sign up here

Saudi Arabia:   IS attacks highlight terrorist threat in Gulf region

Three Saudi Arabian cities were hit by suicide bombers on 4 July, leaving at least four security forces’ personnel dead and several others injured. The first blast occurred near the US Consulate in Jeddah, followed by two attacks in Shi’a-majority Qatif and a final one at the entrance of the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina. The terrorist attacks came two days before the Muslim world celebrated Eid al-Fitr, taking advantage of increased attendance at places of worship. Although no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attacks, the chosen targets indicate Islamic State (IS) is responsible. To read more, sign up here

Spain: Election re-run fails to ease political deadlock

After six months of political deadlock following the December 2015 general election, on 26 June, Spanish voters went back to the polls for an election re-run. Although the results have strengthened the ruling conservative People’s Party (PP), they failed to resolve the parliamentary stalemate, leaving challenging prospects for forming a functional coalition ahead of 19 July, when the new parliament will take seat. To read more, sign up here

Chile: Student protests put mounting pressure upon Bachelet administration

On 5 July, thousands of Chilean students protested in Santiago and other cities, including Temuco, Valdivia, Concepcion and Valparaiso, to demand the resignation of Education Minister Adriana Delpiano and to denounce the ongoing education reform. The protest, which was declared “illegal” the previous day, erupted into unrest, with police responding robustly with tear gas and water cannons. More than 140 people were arrested and a number of people were injured. The protests reflect growing anger and frustration towards President Michelle Bachelet, who campaigned on a platform of free university education as part of her re-election victory in 2014. To read more, sign up here

Mali: Rising violence threatens central region

In June, a new armed group –  the National Alliance for the Protection of Fulani Identity and the Restoration of Justice (Alliance Nationale pour la Souvegarde de l’Identité Peule et la Restauration de la Justice; ANSIPRJ) – announced its formation in Mali to represent the Fulani ethnic group. Its formation indicates the rising tensions in central Mali, driven by deteriorating communal relations as a result of the army’s reprisal attacks after violence by jihadist insurgents linked to al-Qaeda. Rather than centring in Mali’s north-east like previous waves of conflict, the violence is now spreading to the central region around Mopti. Meanwhile, the international community and local stakeholders are distracted as they focus their attention on implementing the north’s 2015 peace deal and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme. To read more, sign up here

Austria: Presidential election re-run boosts far-right ambitions

Chancellor Christian Kern has announced that a re-run of the second-round runoff vote in the 2016 presidential election will take place on 2 October. The decision followed the annulment of the 22 May vote by the Constitutional Court on 1 July, allowing a second chance for the election of the first far-right head of state in an EU country. To read more, sign up here